This year, the international oil price operating range will move upwards
The 2018 petrochemical industry development conference and the second quadrennial general meeting of the petrochemical association were held in Beijing on May 9. At the sub-forum of the “new journey of the crude oil futures opening service entity” organized by Dongfeng Futures in the afternoon of the same day, industry sources stated that 2018 In the case of tight balance between oil supply and demand in the world and increasing geopolitical factors, the international oil price operating interval may have shifted upwards compared to 2017.
Chen Rui, director of the Research Institute of Refining and Chemicals Market and Strategic Research of the China Petroleum Economic Research Institute and deputy director of the Oil Market Institute, predicts that emerging economies represented by China and India will further develop in the global economic growth rate in 2018. Raise world crude oil demand.
As for the supply side, he believes that in view of the effectiveness of the 2017 limited production and pricing policy, OPEC will continue to maintain the production restriction policy in 2018. It is understood that with the shift of OPEC's strategy in 2016, its share in the market has declined, but benefiting from the rise in oil prices, most oil-producing countries have realized income growth. In 2017, OPEC’s crude oil export revenue increased by 24% year-on-year.
Therefore, Chen Rui predicts that in order to ensure a longer period of stability in the crude oil market, oil-producing countries are likely to continue to maintain production limits and establish long-term cooperation mechanisms.
In fact, since the beginning of the year, the implementation rate of OPEC's production cuts has kept rising. According to IEA data, the implementation rate of production reduction in OPEC countries has risen to 147% in February, and the non-OPEC countries have also achieved an 86% reduction in production cuts, which is an increase of 5 percentage points.
In view of the fact that Venezuela, which has made major contributions to OPEC’s production cuts at the beginning of the year, still faces the problems of insufficient funds, political turmoil, and the spread of the economic crisis, Iran will face US economic sanctions and there will be some uncertainty. Chen Rui expects OPEC countries in the second quarter. Crude oil production will remain near the low level in the first quarter.
As for non-OPEC countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan, their crude oil output will rise as a result of unconventional resources. In particular, in the United States, with the increase in the number of oil rigs, the increase in the hedging of producers during the rise of oil prices, the “back to homeland” of North American oil producers, the development of dense oil zones, and the continued growth of capital expenditures, US crude oil output in 2018 Will grow further. However, given that 2017's shale oil production growth is not proportional to capital expenditures, “some companies may change their investment philosophy and focus on return on investment”.
Chen Rui speculates that in 2018, the world crude oil market will have a demand of 32.6 million barrels per day for OPEC crude oil production, while the increase in world demand will be basically the same as the non-OPEC oil supply increase. Market supply and demand will mainly depend on OPEC’s production cuts. Implementation Effect. "Overall estimation, the global market supply and demand pattern will continue to improve in 2018, and will be slightly smaller than demand for the whole year."
As for the second-quarter and long-term crude oil prices, Wang Pei, deputy general manager of the marketing strategy department of China International Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, believes that the most noteworthy issues are sudden geopolitical events and black swan events. In fact, apart from the need to pay attention to the further development of Sino-U.S. trade frictions, the implementation of U.S. economic sanctions against Iran, the results of the elections in Iraq and Venezuela, the inventory of U.S. crude oil in the second quarter, and the outcome of the OPEC ministerial meeting held in June, etc. There may be greater deviations from expectations, which in turn may cause some impact on the original market judgment. "Among them, Iran's 512 nuclear agreement will have a very important impact on oil prices."
In his opinion, the oil market in the third and fourth quarters is expected to gradually return to the fundamentals, and there is a high probability that the oil supply situation will be tight. In general, he believes that the actual level of crude oil prices in 2018 may be higher than expected, given the tight supply and global inventory decline.