The Iranian oil supply crisis is coming back! The $90 oil price is right in front of you.
Reduce 1 million barrels per day! Trump sanctions Iranian oil
Citing two people familiar with Trump's government to cut Iran's oil supply, the Trump administration is expected to be able to persuade Iran's oil customers to reduce crude oil imports from Iran by 1 million barrels per day.
The two people said that the daily production of oil is expected to be reduced by 1 million barrels, about half of Iran's average oil exports in the past year, but far below the US target of reducing Iranian oil sales to zero.
Despite this, analysts said that in early November, the global oil supply disruption of 1 million barrels will further push up oil prices. According to the data, Iran’s oil exports have reached an average of 2.1 million barrels per day in the past year.
Is the oil supply crisis coming back?
As far as the current crude oil market is concerned, most analysts estimate that if the United States resumes sanctions, Iran’s daily oil production will be reduced by 500,000 to 1 million barrels.
However, given the ongoing efforts of the United States to stop importing Iranian oil as much as possible, some analysts even expect that this number will be close to 1 million barrels per day instead of 500,000 barrels.
According to Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, US sanctions against Iran are “unbelievable” and are expected to be more than 100 per day. Thousand barrels of Iranian oil were withdrawn from the crude oil market.
However, Croft said that the current question about Iran’s oil supply is whether Trump can let other countries except China not recognize the US sanctions against Iran because China has made it clear that it will not recognize the United States against Iran. Sanctions.
The United States has not been able to convince China that Iran’s largest oil consumer has reduced Iran’s oil purchases, but according to media reports, Beijing has indicated that it will continue to increase oil imports from Iran.
Finally, Croft warned that the United States could allow Europe to withdraw from the Iranian oil market, and that India, the second-largest oil consumer in Iran after China, is likely to reduce Iran’s oil purchases even if it does not completely withdraw. .
Oil prices may have to rise! 90 dollars is in sight?
There is no doubt that because of Iran, the oil supply crisis may come back, and oil prices will also rise.
In this regard, Wall Street investment bank - Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that because Iranian oil barrels were squeezed out of the crude oil market, in addition, the risk of other supply disruptions (Venezuela, US shale oil production slowed) also threatened the increasingly tight oil market The bank expects oil prices to soar to $90 a barrel by the second quarter of 2019.
Coincidentally, Energy Aspects chief analyst Amrita Senvia has a similar view. According to  before "Iran oil is facing an interruption, the US shale oil production slows down! The $90 oil price is really coming?" The article mentioned that Senia believes that by the fourth quarter of this year, oil prices may rise to more than 80 US dollars, or even more than 90 US dollars.
But the most crucial thing is how much Iran’s oil production will fall because of sanctions. Finally, Senia expects that by the end of this year, Iran’s oil production will fall by 1.2 million to 1.5 million barrels per day from the peak level in April.