Iranian sanctions do not hinder global crude oil supply, high oil prices, rapid decline
On Thursday, September 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly crude oil market report. The report said that global crude oil supply reached a record high of 100 million barrels per day in August.
According to IEA data, in August this year, OPEC crude oil supply rose to a nine-month high of 32.63 million barrels per day due to increased production in Libya and Iraq. In OCED, crude oil inventories in July also increased by 7.9 million barrels to 2.824 billion barrels.
The IEA believes that oil demand outside the OECD is resilient, but the exchange rate decline and trade friction prospects pose risks. In addition, the market may not be able to compensate for the further decline in export volume.
The monthly report showed that Iran's crude oil output in August fell by 150,000 barrels per day to 3.63 million barrels per day, the lowest since July 2016. Iran’s crude oil exports in August also fell by 280,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day.
The IEA mentioned that Iran’s crude oil supply fell to a two-year low due to sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran’s energy sector. At the same time, the economic crisis has caused Venezuela's crude oil production to fall, and the output of other oil-producing regions has been unexpectedly interrupted, so supply and demand will continue to be tight.
Although to stabilize the market, OPEC's 15 member states have agreed to increase production from July this year to offset the decline in crude oil production in Iran and Venezuela. As Iran and Venezuela continue to increase production, the IEA expects crude oil prices to rise:
In the next three months, the daily consumption of global oil will exceed 100 million barrels, which will tighten the market and the pressure on oil prices. The price of oil in the market since April is 70-80 US dollars per barrel may "test."
The Financial Times also pointed out that if global oil-producing countries cannot offset Venezuela’s declining oil production, and the upcoming US sanctions on Iran’s energy exports, the tight supply may lead to international crude oil prices far exceeding 80 per barrel. Dollar.
Wall Street News In an earlier article, the US sanctions on Iranian oil imports will come into effect in November this year, and Trump has less than two months to find new breakthroughs.
JBC Energy analysts said that Iran is increasingly becoming a top priority in the crude oil market, and whether it is onshore or offshore, the foreseeable shrinkage of production in the crude oil market has taken shape.
Bloomberg added that although OPEC's main member state, Saudi Arabia, and partner Russia, said they would guide production increases in other ways to offset the damage caused by sanctions, it is still unknown how many gaps can be filled.
It is worth noting that on the demand side, the IEA maintains the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2018 and 2019, which is 1.4 million barrels per day and 1.5 million barrels per day. In addition, global crude oil demand for the fourth quarter of 2018 is forecast to be 102.9 billion barrels per day, compared with 99.27 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2019.
After the report was released, international oil prices fell rapidly. Brent crude oil fell 1%, falling below the $79 mark. WTI crude oil fell 1.56% to $69.27.