Experts: Oil prices enter a new cycle of rise
Recently, Zhong Jian, an oil expert and chief researcher of Jinlianchuang Petroleum Economics, expressed at the fourth China Petroleum and Chemical Sustainable Development Forum sub-forum that the oil market is undergoing a new evolution and showing new features. At present, oil prices have entered a new cycle of rising.
"Under the combined effect of a series of fundamental factors such as the important prospects for the relaxation of US financial regulation and the new US-led energy-government policy, and the adjustment of the geopolitical policies in the Middle East, international oil prices are turning into a new cycle of sustained upward growth from the downturn. “Zhong Jian’s analysis believes that this upturn cycle began in July 2017 and will be a long-term phenomenon. Among them, the relaxation of US financial supervision is the basis for rising oil prices.
Zhong Jian said that China's economic development speed and economic restructuring have a great impact on China's oil market. From the diesel consumption point of view, the reduction in the use of oil by production companies led to a decline in diesel consumption. In the context of China's continued capacity reduction, production companies may experience further recession in oil use, which will increase the oil market’s excess resources. Therefore, the adjustment of economic policies has a great impact on the oil industry.
In addition, Zhong Jian believes that under the policy of "centralized mergers, stronger scales, vertical alliances, and complementary advantages" of central SOEs, the existing problems of oil central SOEs are in line with the conditions for the application of this principle. “If the oil central government’s “horizontal and vertical” reforms are implemented, there will be major changes in the domestic oil market.” The specific manifestation is that the competition in the oil market will change from a multiopoly to a single oligarch, and the “gap opportunity” resulting from the competition between the original oligopoly will The competitiveness of private enterprises that disappeared and dispersed in front of a single oligarch will be further weakened. These will make the domestic oil market show unprecedented competition.
“In the next 3-5 years, it will be the next phase of the oil economic cycle. By 2020, the price of oil may return to the level of nearly 100 US dollars in 2013.” Zhong Jian said.