Domestic oil prices are downgraded today or in June This conference influences future trends
The domestic retail price adjustment window for refined oil products opened again at 24:00 on the 8th. The agency expects that after a period of sharp rise in prices, the refined oil prices will bid farewell to the continuous rise of the situation. It is expected that the drop in gasoline and diesel per litre will be 0.09 yuan to 0.13 yuan, and the owners will be able to spend less money.
According to China's "Administrative Measures on Oil Price," domestic gasoline and diesel prices are adjusted every 10 working days according to changes in crude oil prices in the international market, and the effective date of price adjustment is 24 hours on the day of price adjustment.
At present, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products during the year presented a pattern of “seven ups, three downs and one lay down”, the cumulative increase in gasoline was 720 yuan/ton, and the cumulative increase in diesel was 700 yuan/ton.
In the current cycle of price adjustment, international oil prices have shown a downward trend. Despite market concerns about Venezuela’s decline in output and exports, the company’s oil analyst Li Yan said that Saudi Arabia and Russia have disclosed their willingness to increase production; U.S. crude oil production hit a record high; U.S. created trade frictions and instability in Italy, etc. All brought negative, leading to increased downward pressure on oil prices.
On June 6th, local time, international oil prices fell again. On the same day, U.S. crude oil inventories reported an unexpected increase. At the same time, Venezuela indicated that it has the ability to increase production and pressure oil prices.
As of the close on the 6th, the US WTI July crude oil futures contract fell 0.79 US dollars at US$64.73/barrel; Brent August crude oil futures contract fell 0.02 US dollars at US$75.36/barrel; China SC9 monthly crude oil futures contract closed up at 6 days. Yuan, reported 463.8 yuan / barrel.
Affected by the continued weakening of international oil prices, Longzhong Information, Zhuozhuang Information, Zhongyu Information, and Jinlian Chuang are all expected to reduce domestic oil prices on the 8th. Each forecast has a different degree of downward adjustment. Comprehensive forecast, the current round of oil price is expected to be reduced 120 yuan / ton -150 yuan / ton range, equivalent to 0.09 yuan per lift -0.13 yuan. At that time, private car owners will be able to save a small family car with a capacity of 50 liters and save 4.5-6.5 yuan.
In addition, attention to gas station preferential policies is also a way to save money. Zhuo Chuang, an analyst of refined oil products Yang Xia, pointed out that due to the continued rise in oil prices in the previous period, profit margins for gas stations were significantly increased. For example, some of the main gas stations in Shandong, such as Sinopec, can be offered at a fixed rate of 0.5-1 yuan per litre per week, and some private gas stations can be offered at around 1.2 yuan per litre.
The next round of price adjustments for domestic oil prices will begin at 24:00 on June 25. What will happen to oil prices in the future?
In the opinion of analysts, in June, the focus of market attention is gradually shifting to oil-producing countries. OPEC and Russia will hold talks in Vienna from June 22nd to 23rd. According to foreign media reports, US President Trump has complained that OPEC's production cuts have pushed oil prices too high. The U.S. government recently sent an informal request to Saudi Arabia and other OPEC member states to request Saudi Arabia and other major oil-producing countries to increase production by about 1 million barrels per day. In addition, Goldlink said that the market expects Iran’s crude oil supply to decrease by 1 million barrels per day if the United States restarts its sanctions against Iran.
Zhu Yinghua, analyst at Zhongyu Information, believes that policy adjustments and restrictions on oil production by the oil-producing countries before the meeting are expected to form a sustained repression of the oil market, and that short-term international oil prices or sideways consolidation may be biased downwards.
Although the Iraqi oil minister said on the 6th that the production increase was not in the scope of the negotiations of the oil-producing countries meeting this month. However, Li Yan believes that the meeting is likely to put production options on the table, or produce some negative, the market is also cautious about this. Therefore, it is expected that the next round of oil product price adjustment is likely to be reduced or stranded.
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