Agency prediction: oil prices may soar to more than 100 US dollars per barrel
According to a RT report on October 8, meteorologists predict that this winter will be particularly cold and oil prices may rise to their highest level since 2014.
After OPEC+ said it would not increase production beyond the 400,000 barrels per month originally agreed, oil prices soared to their highest levels in years. Bank analysts predict that oil prices may rise before the end of this year, which is also expected. Now, some analysts predict that oil prices will further climb to $100 per barrel. The good news is that even if this happens, it won't last long. Goldman Sachs recently updated its oil price forecast for the last quarter, stating that the price of Brent crude oil will reach $90 a barrel by the end of December. Prior to this, the bank said that if the winter is colder, oil demand may soar by 900,000 barrels per day.
The bank’s commodity analyst said, “Although we have been bullish on oil, because the current global supply gap is larger than we originally thought. The recovery in global demand under the influence of the Delta virus is much better than we expected, and the global The supply is far below our general consensus."
Subsequently, Bank of America said that as the current energy crisis has spread to the world, oil prices may reach US$100 per barrel. US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm (Jennifer Granholm) said this week that the Department of Energy may release oil from the national emergency reserve to reduce gasoline prices. The bank went on to warn that this could severely set back the global economic recovery.
Bank of America pointed out that record natural gas prices have forced some utilities to switch to petroleum derivatives, pushing up demand for crude oil. Like Goldman Sachs, the bank also pointed out that the cold winter may be another important factor in the bullish oil.
Bank of America analysts wrote in a report, "If all these factors are combined, oil prices may soar, leading to a second round of inflationary pressures around the world. In other words, we may only be close to the next huge hurricane. A storm".
However, John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services, said that even if the price of Brent crude oil reaches $100 a barrel, it is unlikely to remain at this level for a long time. The benchmark index needs many factors to support it to reach this price level.
He said, “I think this is a low probability situation. In other words, if everything goes wrong, for example, we encounter extremely cold weather, our delivery capacity and supply chain failure. But these are A possible situation, and I think it is unlikely that this situation will continue to occur."
It all depends on the weather. All forecasters mention that the cold winter is a key factor affecting all energy prices, and it seems that everyone is looking forward to it.
Driscoll said, “You can see a record-breaking peak, and I really haven’t heard anyone talking about the coming winter being mild. I think, considering all the uncertainties of weather and climate change, we May go through a crazy journey".
However, for a long period of time, it is impossible to predict the weather accurately. In fact, as Bloomberg reported earlier this month, there are huge differences in current weather forecasts by meteorologists.
Of course, the rational approach is to prepare for the worst possible situation, that is, we will encounter a very cold winter. In fact, this is exactly what Europe is trying to do, which has also become an important reason for soaring oil prices. However, at least to a certain extent, this surge is the result of speculation rather than fundamental factors. Russia stated that it would provide more natural gas to Europe. Subsequently, the price of natural gas fell by $50, which is very telling.